Exercise #13

Estimate Emissions from Unknown Location

Large N-S gradient near 43N 75W

Time Variation of Emissions using the Ratio Method

Use the existing coefficient matrix with the 5 emission periods

  • Under each release time define the slope function
  • Let measured data (last column) become Y
  • Let model prediction (release time column) become X
  • Use $Column$Row definition to fix the measured data column
  • Copy slope equation to the bottom of each release column
  • Show slope (M/C) solution for each release time

Emission results for 0100 0112 0200 0212 0300

Positive emission rates are obtained only for the 1st, 3rd, and 5th periods. Solutions for individual time periods are not as good as those that consider all the data.

The Effect of Reducing Model Error

Concentration grid resolution: 0.05
Particle number: 50,000


Cost function

It seems that the Cost function solution performed better when there was more model error!